A Donegal representative from the Irish Nurse and Midwives Organisation (INMO) insists that the public is right behind industrial action scheduled to take place on January 30 despite the disruption it could cause across the county. Strike action is set to take place at the end of the month over pay and conditions.The Irish Nurses and Midwives Organisation is calling for a 12% pay rise across the board to bring their members in line with other health professionals. The Department of Public Expenditure said it won’t be bringing forward proposals for additional pay, as the Taoiseach added that the Government will do “all that we can” to avoid the proposed action.The Psychiatric Nurses Association has warned that its 6,000 members will also go on strike next month if the Government does not sit down and address the problems.Maura Hickey, INMO, told Donegal Daily the problem had escalated following the HSE’s failure to retain nurses and midwives overall the last several years.“In terms of how bad the situation is, in our internal ballot, we had a 95% in favour of industrial action previous to Christmas. “This is all because we cannot retain or recruit nurses and have to ask the question why the HSE cannot do that,” Hickey added. “They cannot do that because of the terrible working conditions that nurses and midwives find themselves in because of the inability to recruit staff and retain them.“They are being recruited by countries like the (United) States, Canada, Australia and Saudia Arabia were the rate of pay is considerably higher than it is here.“We are not talking about England, Scotland or mainland Europe where each country has their own language, ” she said. “We are now looking for clarity of pay and conditions with the other allied health professions at the entry grade and for our nurses they start at €7,000 less than someone in another allied profession with a four-year degree.”The INMO is calling for a 12 per cent pay increase across the boardHickey added that the Donegal public has to look any further than Letterkenny Hospital, where conditions are some of the worst in the country.“If we take it local, in Letterkenny there were nine patients on trolleys down in day services, there were patients in trolleys and in corridors around the entire hospital. There were no additional nurses because there are no agency nurses out there in the North-West for them to get, and they didn’t even cancel elective procedures. “Now you have to go in every day to face that, you then go into the Emergency Department (ED) where every seat is gone in the waiting room and the corridor is full of patients waiting for a bed who have already been seen.“The assessment has said they need a bed and they’re standing on corridors waiting on a bed and there is no additional staff in ED put in to look after those patients, you only have the same cohort of staff.“That is only some of it, we have to go in, whether its morning or night shift, to face that all over again,”Psychiatric Nurses’ Association has also warned that its 6,000 members will also go on strike next month if the Government doesn’t act.The Donegal INMO Union Spokesperson expressed disappointment in the HSE and Government officials for not doing more, adding that ‘they didn’t anything meaningful to improve the situation’. “This has been a growing issue, we have been monitoring the trolley watch and recording it for the last 10 years and all the HSE has done and, the Government has watched and let it grow, they didn’t do anything meaningful to improve the situation.“The reality is, there is a lack of bed capacity in Letterkenny and the HSE were going to open 10 more beds for a short-stay ward,” Hickey said. “You cannot open a ward unless you’ve got the appropriate nursing staff to nurse those patients.“So, where do you get them? If you can’t recruit (nurses), you can’t open the beds. So, you get back to this vicious circle. Why can’t we recruit nurses? Because they are not out there. Why are they not out there? Because they are leaving this country and going to places where they will be valued and paid appropriately. Where they’ll not be called in when on annual leave because the hospital cannot cope.”Despite years of friction, Hickey insisted that the relationship between the nursing staff, the HSE and the Government has not broken down and a resolution could still be agreed.“Well, let’s call a spade a spade,” she said. “There is no point trying to negotiate with the HSE or the Department of Health when the real paymasters are the Department of Public Expenditure.“Those are the people that we need coming to the table with an engaging and meaningful negotiation because they are the people who are in charge of the money and for some off reason they will say that they value nurses and midwives but they don’t want to pay them appropriately.“So, they are the people that we need to be in the discussions with because after this strike our nurses and midwives will have to go back and work with general management and we would hope everything will be done with dignity and with professionalism.”With growing concerns on Letterkenny Hospital and services right across the country, Hickey reiterated that the public response towards the nurses and midwives has been ‘phenomenal’.“This is as much about the safety of patients and the delivery of a high standard of care in a safe environment and I think the public actually understand that.“There will be a bit of disruption but the support for the nurses and midwives has been phenomenal.“So, now we will just have to wait and see what will happen. I know one thing with a 95% result in our ballot the nurses and midwives have a strong resolve.”About 37,000members of the Irish Nurses and Midwives Organisation(INMO) are scheduled to stage 24-hour work stoppages on January 30th and February 5th, 7th, 12th, 13th and 14th unless the dispute is resolved.However, the with talks having start on Tuesday, the Department of Public Expenditure said pay claims put forward by nursing unions were precluded by the existing agreement.Talks are set to continue between the Union and Government on Monday.DD Health Special: Donegal public are behind our strike action – INMO rep was last modified: January 21st, 2019 by Shaun KeenanShare this:Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window)Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window)Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window)Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window)Click to share on Pocket (Opens in new window)Click to share on Telegram (Opens in new window)Click to share on WhatsApp (Opens in new window)Click to share on Skype (Opens in new window)Click to print (Opens in new window)Tags:Department of Healthdepartment of public expenditureHSEinmoIrish Nurses and Midwives Organisationletterkenny hospital
Despite trailing 0-2 and their world number one Test ranking at stake, India are quite confident of turning the tables on a rampant England in the remaining two Tests of the four-match Test series.Even as the injuries and batting failures have hit India hard, Dhoni’s men are not overlooking a few positives from the two defeats at Lord’s and Trent Bridge.”Bhai sahib, yahan match to jeetna hai (we have to win matches),” Praveen Kumar, who has so far taken 13 wickets from two Tests at an average of 26.53, said.Indians are not ready to get caught in the swirl of negatives floating around them and are working on strengthening their belief in themselves, which alone could help them turn the tide in their favour.They are keen to draw confidence from the fact that Sachin Tendulkar was not well at Lord’s, Gautam Gambhir was laid low by an elbow injury, while Rahul Dravid and VVS Laxman did little wrong in the last two Tests. Even Suresh Raina showed a glimpse of his ability.There is not a single pacer one can find fault with, even though off-spinner Harbhajan Singh has failed miserably and “Bhajji bashing” started almost immediately.Harbhajan, who is now ruled out of the Test series due to an abdominal strain, was being viewed as an unimaginative bowler and as somebody who wouldn’t mind being injured at this stage of his career.The off-spinner bowled just 13.4 overs in the second Test and has been woefully out of form in the series. The tweaker grabbed one for 69 in the second Test after his one for 218 in the first at Lord’s. But the fact that even Graeme Swann equally struggled on seamers’ strip, has conveniently been brushed under the carpet.advertisement”We are very good at running down our own men. You break this team now and you would pay the price in Australia later this year. No spinner, other than (Shane) Warne, (Muttiah) Muralitharan and (Anil) Kumble, has taken more wickets than Harbhajan in the history of the game,” said a former Indian captain, who is now a cricket commentator.”And are Bhajji’s critics implying that Warne, Murali and Kumble never had an ordinary series? Kumble averaged nearly 60 in his final three Test series. Warne is averaging nearly 50 in 14 Tests against India. And do you want to know what is Murali’s average in India — over 45 in 11 Tests!” he added.As far as Dhoni is concerned, he has also been a subject of similar attack. There is nothing that critics can find right with his batting, keeping or captaincy.But the Indian team knows that it is not only him who has failed with the bat in the series but also England captain Andrew Strauss and Alastair Cook.Dhoni’s collection behind the stumps is faulted, even when the wickets have been uneven at times. There is a lack of respect for a man who has helped India reach the top of the Test ladder and stay there for 19 months.Most of the members of the Indian cricket team have seen the highs and the lows in their careers and are experienced enough not to get bothered by all the criticism surrounding them at the moment.Teams can and do lose a match and a series. But it must not be a trigger to stamp out the good cricketers. Players, who serve long can have an aberration once in a while but it shouldn’t be a signal to take them off the roster.An act in haste could be one of repent later. And No.1 Test side in the world is all desperate to prove their critics wrong when they take on England in the last two Tests at Edgbaston and The Oval.- With inputs from PTI
Cayetano: Senate, Drilon to be blamed for SEA Games mess But while it seemed to be just a matter of time for Parks to finally make his PBA debut, the versatile guard said he remains uncertain about his next move.What’s only sure at this point is he’ll be taking some time off first from playing basketball before deciding on his future.FEATURED STORIESSPORTSPrivate companies step in to help SEA Games hostingSPORTSPalace wants Cayetano’s PHISGOC Foundation probed over corruption chargesSPORTSSingapore latest to raise issue on SEA Games food, logistics“I needed to rest right now. I’ve been playing three years straight so I needed a break,” said Parks, who recently wrapped up his third season with Alab Pilipinas in the Asean Basketball League.“That’s what we’re still trying to figure out right now, whatever the next chapter is. I’m still pondering my thoughts trying to figure out what’s the best situation not only for me but for my family. Being the breadwinner of the family I try to help out a lot.” DA eyes importing ‘galunggong’ anew The 6-foot-4 Parks was a two-time ABL Local MVP and he helped Alab win the ABL title in 2018.Parks and Alab’s latest season, however, didn’t pan out the way they wanted it to be after the Philippine side got eliminated in the quarterfinals despite being the No. 2 seed.The two-time UAAP MVP out of National University was selected second overall by the Blackwater Elite in the 2018 PBA Draft four months ago.Parks is expected to join the Elite in the Commissioner’s Cup next month but he bared that he has yet to sign any contract.“As of now they own my rights but I haven’t signed anything yet.”ADVERTISEMENT SEA Games hosting troubles anger Duterte Sports Related Videospowered by AdSparcRead Next Ray Parks. Photo by Tristan Tamayo/INQUIRER.netMANILA, Philippines—There was a Ray Parks sighting in the PBA Sunday night.Parks was in attendance at Mall of Asia Arena as he watched Phoenix book its first ever semifinals berth after pummelling Alaska in the 2019 Philippine Cup quarterfinals.ADVERTISEMENT MOST READ Hontiveros presses for security audit of national power grid Duterte wants probe of SEA Games mess Philippine Arena Interchange inaugurated Player dies in hotel room, 4th round of tournament canceled Panelo: Duterte ‘angry’ with SEA Games hosting hassles Don’t miss out on the latest news and information. Private companies step in to help SEA Games hosting LATEST STORIES Trending Articles PLAY LIST 00:50Trending Articles00:50Trending Articles00:50Trending Articles02:42PH underwater hockey team aims to make waves in SEA Games01:44Philippines marks anniversary of massacre with calls for justice01:19Fire erupts in Barangay Tatalon in Quezon City01:07Trump talks impeachment while meeting NCAA athletes02:49World-class track facilities installed at NCC for SEA Games02:11Trump awards medals to Jon Voight, Alison Krauss View comments
Eden RichardsA grand final rematch is looking more and more likely in the 18’s Boys after a great day of competition at Touch Football Australia’s National Youth Competition on the Sunshine Coast.QSST and the Central Queensland Bulls battled it out for the title in 2016 and history is inching closer to repeating.The two Queensland teams are the only sides that have won all their matches after Day Two, with the Bulls sitting atop Pool B and QSST Pool A.Pool C is a battle in two between the South Queensland Sharks and NSWCHS and it would take a brave punter to separate the pair heading into Day Three.Below is a summary of the day’s results headlined by some outstanding team performances. Pool BThe Bulls are on a mission to avenge their 2016 grand final loss and their opposition teams in Pool B are feeling the wrath of a side hungry for success.The Bulls gave NSWTA their first loss of the competition on Day Two, recording a 10-3 win to sit clear at the top with three wins from three attempts.NSWTA are joined by the South West Queensland Swans on two wins and one loss, with the Swans suffering their only defeat of the tournament to NSWTA on Day Three.NSWTA’s for and against means they currently sit third, but a win over the Northern Territory on Day Three could change that, as their nearest rivals the Swans face the almost impossible task of beating the Bulls. Pool AQSST had just the one game on Day Two but and they made the most of it, running out 12-5 winners over NSWCCC.A tough match-up against the North Queensland Tropical Cyclones awaits QSST on Day Three, with the Tropical Cyclones needing victory to jump the second-placed Sunshine Coast Pineapples.The Pineapples have completed their four matches and will be hoping to scrape into the finals after a hard-fought 8-8 draw with the Cyclones late on Day Two.NSWCCC and the winless Western Tigers will meet on Day Three, with the Tigers desperate to record a victory after a tough campaign. Pool CThe most open pool of the competition sees the Sharks and NSWCHS battling it out for top position after the two teams played out a thrilling 8-8 draw in the last match-up of Day Two.Neither side has lost a match and they have both sewn up a top-two finish heading into an absorbing Day Three.If Sharks touchdown machine Declan Keen keeps his form up then they will be hard to stop, with the South Queenslander leading the competition with 10 to his name after doubling his tally on Day Two.In other results, Touch New Zealand had a great second day, winning both their games to climb up the ladder and prove they can match it with the best Australia has to offer.Day Three is set to begin at 10:30am as teams put together one final push for finals Touch Football.
Chelsea defender Cahill will fight for his place – Zolaby Ansser Sadiq10 months agoSend to a friendShare the loveChelsea veteran Gary Cahill will stay and fight for this place.That is according to assistant manager Gianfranco Zola.The club legend, who is assisting Maurizio Sarri this term, says that Cahill is always one who will compete for a first team spot.There is speculation that Cahill will move on in January as he is not getting much playing time.”It is difficult to say about that,” Zola said during the press conference.”It was not Gary has done badly when he played, but at the moment there are players performing very well. “I don’t know what will happen, but he is a fighter. “It was a surprise to find out his personality, he will try to fight for a place.” TagsTransfersAbout the authorAnsser SadiqShare the loveHave your say
When it came to big National Signing Day events, Michigan definitely led the way with its “Signing of the Stars” fundraiser. The Wolverines weren’t the only ones to have a good time celebrating the big day, however. Clemson posted three videos from its party, and it looked like a pretty good time in its own right. No Derek Jeter, Lou Holtz, or Migos, but I don’t think the Tigers are complaining. What a time to be a Tiger! #ALLIN #Clemson #NationalSigningDayA video posted by Clemson Football (@clemsonfb) on Feb 3, 2016 at 6:14pm PST (Part I) Signing Day Celebration… Welcome to the #ClemsonFamily! Who has more fun than us? What a time to be a Tiger! #ALLIN #ClemsonA video posted by Clemson Football (@clemsonfb) on Feb 4, 2016 at 10:07am PST (Part II) Signing Day Celebration… Welcome to the #ClemsonFamily! Who has more fun than us? What a time to be a Tiger! #ALLIN #ClemsonA video posted by Clemson Football (@clemsonfb) on Feb 4, 2016 at 10:08am PST (Part III) Signing Day Celebration… Welcome to the #ClemsonFamily! Who has more fun than us? What a time to be a Tiger! #ALLIN #ClemsonA video posted by Clemson Football (@clemsonfb) on Feb 4, 2016 at 10:09am PST Most importantly: Clemson’s class finished in the Top 10 nationally, and No. 2 in the ACC. Wednesday was a good one for Dabo Swinney and the Tigers.
HALIFAX — Experts on flooding risks say worrying figures released this week on the rising seas in Atlantic Canada should prompt governments to move more swiftly to protect coastal areas and vital transport links.Blair Feltmate, head of the Intact Centre on Climate Adaptation at the University of Waterloo, calls the projections “a wake-up call and a call to arms.”He’s reacting to Chapter 7 of “Canada’s Changing Climate Report,” which projects 75 centimetres to one metre of relative sea level rise for the East Coast.Federal scientists presented the document earlier this week, noting Canada is warming at twice the rate of the rest of the globe in a now irreversible process.Feltmate points to predictions for quadrupling of flooding along the Halifax waterfront by mid-century as a signal buildings will have to be constructed to cope with higher tidal surges.In addition, he says the study highlights the vulnerability of the Chignecto Isthmus — a low-lying, 20-kilometre band of land that joins Nova Scotia to New Brunswick.Ocean scientists said in the report that the Atlantic region is facing a dual effect of rising seas and falling coastlines.It notes that while in much of the country the coast is rebounding from glaciation — helping counter sea-level rise — the eastern coasts are continuing to sink. The Canadian Press
TeamYearSeedAvgGames wonExpected winsOver-performance Pittsburgh2013870%00.67-0.67 Utah St.20051477%00.09-0.09 Miss. Valley St.20081626%00.000.00 Louisville2014470%TBD1.48TBD Louisville is FiveThirtyEight’s pick to win the NCAA tournament even though it’s a No. 4 seed. That doesn’t reflect a bluegrass bias, or a weak draw, or a bug in the model (we hope). Instead, it reflects how massively underseeded the Cardinals are. According to our calculations, Louisville is the seventh-most underseeded team in the past 12 tournaments, and the most aggrieved this year.That’s the good news for Cardinals fans, whose team has a 15 percent chance of winning the title, according to our model. Louisville is also the plurality pick for Midwest Region champion of ESPN, Yahoo and CBS readers who picked brackets. It even has the backing of President Obama, who has the defending champion Cardinals returning to the final (though losing to Michigan State).Now here’s the bad news: Although teams that receive rough treatment from the selection committee outperform their seed on average, there are plenty of exceptions. The most underseeded team among top-four seeds since 2003 — Memphis in 2009, a No. 2 seed rated by some analysts as the strongest team in the country — lost in the Sweet Sixteen.We can place Louisville’s No. 4 seed in historical context in several ways, none ideal. I chose to calculate, for each team in the tournament since 20031As far back as our data set goes., its expected winning percentage against the other teams that received that seed during that period, using ratings from college basketball analyst Ken Pomeroy. So, I’m pitting Louisville against the other 47 teams that got No. 4 seeds since 2003, in a hypothetical mini-season, to see how much stronger the Cardinals are than their peers.2To make it easier to compare teams across different years’ tournaments, I used Pomeroy’s Pythagorean rating for a team: his estimate of that team’s winning percentage if it played a schedule full of average teams. He bases it on teams’ schedules and their offensive and defensive efficiency — how many points per possession they score and allow. (Pomeroy provided, at my request, his Selection Sunday ratings for each year going back to 2003.)We can get win probability for a game using a relatively simple calculation involving the teams’ Pythagorean ratings, outlined here. Teams in different seasons aren’t usually compared in this way, because each season’s ratings are benchmarked to that season’s average team. In our case, we’re looking for a team’s strength relative to its peers in a given season — compared, in turn, to the strength relative to its peers of another team that got the same seed. So the calculation is appropriate.Comparing teams to just the other teams with their seeds in the same season produces similar results. Louisville would have won 70.6 percent of games in a hypothetical season against the other three No. 4 seeds this year: Michigan State, San Diego State and UCLA.Other ratings also take into account similar factors to Pomeroy’s; ESPN’s Basketball Power Index adds the feature of accounting for injuries but goes back just three seasons. Some other possession-based ratings rank Louisville even higher than Pomeroy does. That is reflected in FiveThirtyEight’s model, which gives Louisville a 15 percent chance of winning the title, compared to 12.3 percent by Pomeroy. So another rating might show Louisville to be even more underseeded than Pomeroy’s does.According to these calculations, Louisville would have won 69.8 percent of games against other No. 4 seeds, assuming strength in each season was the same. That’s the highest winning percentage relative to seed since 2003 for a No. 4 seed. At the other end of the spectrum, Vanderbilt, in 2008, would have beaten just 29.6 percent of fellow No. 4 seeds — the lowest of the group.These calculations don’t necessarily mean the selection committee hasn’t done its job when seedings don’t perfectly reflect team strength. Some years, the gap between the four best teams and the next four — or eight or 12 — is greater than it is in other years. Also, sometimes rules such as preventing early meetings between conference rivals can force the committee’s hand. This season, the committee mostly got things right. Only one team other than Louisville is badly underseeded: Tennessee, the No. 11 seed in the Midwest.However, the selection committee chairman, Ron Wellman, said that his panel continues to use Rating Percentage Index to evaluate whether brackets are balanced. RPI’s continued influence, despite its well-known drawbacks, suggests that some teams do get bad breaks.One reason the committee might not feel it needs to change its seeding practices: Teams like Louisville haven’t always soared. Despite being stronger than their seeds suggest, many underseeded teams underperform.Five of the six teams that were more underseeded than Louisville fell flat. Four lost their first games. (One of those, Lamar in 2012, lost a play-in game.) Memphis, in 2009, fell in the round of 16 despite its impressive stats. Only Florida last year, as a strong No. 3 seed, exceeded expectations, falling in the Elite Eight.Outperformance of seed is a tricky concept. The simplest way to evaluate how teams should do is to assume they should beat all lower seeds, but that supposes that all No. 1 seeds will always make the Final Four, which is far from automatic. So for each team since 2003, I started with the number of games it won — from the round of 64 on — and subtracted from that the average number of wins for all other teams in that period with that seed.3This is known as “performance against seed expectation” and has been calculated going back to the start of the current tournament format. So, for instance, the average No. 2 seed since 2003, excluding Memphis in 2009, won 2.4 games. Memphis won two. So it underperformed by four-tenths of a game.There’s a small, positive correlation4R=0.12 between a team’s hypothetical winning percentage against teams with the same seed and a team’s wins relative to expected wins for its seed. So, on balance, teams that are underseeded do prove the selection committee wrong. But the effect is so minor, and clouded by so many exceptions, that they hardly add up to a compelling case against controversial seeding decisions. There are too many examples like Memphis in 2009 to set against cases such as Davidson in 2008, a No. 10 seed that would win two-thirds of games against other 10 seeds and that made the Final Four. Virginia2007430%11.49-0.49 Vanderbilt2008430%01.51-1.51 Memphis2009270%22.40-0.40 Belmont20111371%00.30-0.30 Florida2013370%32.160.84 UNC Asheville20031627%00.000.00 Gonzaga2006330%22.19-0.19 Louisville can search its own media guide for examples of teams that should have done better than their seeds but didn’t. In 2004, the Cardinals were heavily underseeded at No. 10. That suggested they were between the 37th- and 40th-strongest team in the tournament, despite being ranked 16th in Pomeroy’s ratings. Louisville drew a Xavier team that was ranked lower by Pomeroy but that lost by 10. In 2011, like this year, Louisville got a No. 4 seed it could have complained about, because Pomeroy rated the Cardinals 11th and five teams rated lower got better seeds. Yet the Cardinals lost their first tournament game.The potential for upsets that makes the NCAA tournament so exciting could also reduce the Cardinals quickly from title favorite to disappointment, which would end any debate over whether they were underseeded. Anyone lobbying the selection committee to reconsider its decisions should beware of staking the case on any one team, even one as strong and as underseeded as Louisville is. After all, even our model anointing it the favorite gives Louisville an 85 percent chance of not repeating as champions.
Chicago Bears star defense lineman Julius Peppers confirmed it was his North Carolina academic transcript that was posted on the school’s website and displayed a 1.8 GPA But he insists there was “no academic fraud” with it.“I can assure everyone that there is no academic fraud as it relates to my college transcript,” Peppers said in the statement. “I took every course with qualified members of the UNC faculty and I earned every grade whether it was good or bad.“I was never given unapproved assistance or preferential treatment in terms of my academic career because I was a student-athlete. I was also never deemed ineligible to compete on any of the football or basketball teams.”Peppers said the exposure of his transcript has not been a pleasant experience.“This week has been an upsetting and challenging week for me, as one of my most private academic documents appeared on the university’s website for public examination,” Peppers said. “I’m terribly disappointed in the fact that my privacy has been violated, as well as frustrated with whoever negligently and carelessly committed such a flagrant error.”The school never confirmed the authenticity of the transcript, which lists Peppers’ name at the top, but has said it is investigating how the document wound up on the website. School officials removed the link and have said they can’t discuss confidential student information covered by federal privacy laws.The link showed Peppers received some of his highest grades in classes in the Department of African and Afro-American Studies (AFAM). A school investigation has since found fraud and poor oversight in 54 AFAM classes between summer 2007 and summer 2011, with football players making up more than a third of the enrollments and student-athletes making up 58% of the overall enrollments in those suspect classes.Nine of the 10 classes in which Peppers earned a B-+, B or B- that could’ve helped ensure his eligibility came in the AFAM department where he was majoring, according to the transcript. Three were listed as independent study classes, another problem area cited in the school’s probe for a lack of supervision of work — often a research paper — performed by students.The transcript lists a 1.824 GPA, beginning with classes during the summer of 1998 and finishing in the fall of 2001 during Peppers’ last year on the football field for the Tar Heels. The link lacked grades for five classes in summer and fall 2001 terms.The transcript could raise the possibility that the AFAM troubles go back much further than the four-year focus of the investigation, though the school’s report in May acknowledged the misconduct could reach before 2007.Chancellor Holden Thorp announced Thursday that former Gov. Jim Martin will lead a newly created panel to address issues stemming from the internal investigation.
It had to end sometime. After sustaining a perfect record and a staggering 142-37 scoring margin over more than three weeks of play, the Cleveland Indians finally lost Friday night, dropping a tight contest to the Kansas City Royals. It was their first loss after winning 22 straight games. Now that The Streak is over, Cleveland can go back to focusing on the playoffs like any contending team.Just because the Indians can put their streak in the rearview mirror, though, doesn’t mean that we can’t dwell on it a little more. It wasn’t the major league record for consecutive wins — if we include unofficial ties in between victories, the 1916 New York Giants’ 26-game mark still reigns supreme. But we can compare the Indians’ streak to that Giants’ run and determine exactly how difficult baseball’s best winning streaks were in general. (And, because I can’t resist, compare the Indians’ accomplishments with winning streaks in the NBA.)Depending on how you measure the streak’s likelihood, the chances of a team like Cleveland pulling off their streak might have been as low as 1 in 65,000.To judge this, I compared all the MLB streaks to one another, assuming they were done by the same, generic contending team. I set up a simulation under which a team with a fixed Elo rating — our method for determining how good a team is at a given moment — would take a crack at the particular opponents1Including the location of the game and the opposing starting pitchers. faced by every real MLB team who had a winning streak2Again, including streaks interrupted by ties. of at least 18 games since 1901.A few more technical details of the simulation: I gave all the teams the same fixed rating, 1560, which is the average Elo of a World Series participant since 1903, when the first modern Fall Classic was staged.3For context, the average Elo rating is about 1500. For comparison’s sake, the Indians’ rating at the beginning of their streak was 1555. I also assumed the streaking team had a five-man starting rotation, with the team’s rotation slot for the initial game of the streak randomized.4The generic team’s Elo pitcher ratings were then based on the long-term average for that slot number in the rotation. The opponent’s was still the real-life version that reflects the actual starters a team faced during its streak. (This matters because a team that goes into a potential streak with its No. 5 starter is much less likely to get off on the right foot than a team putting its ace on the mound.)After running the first round of simulations, here were the odds of our generic contending team pulling off each streak: Which MLB winning streak was most impressive?Probability of a generic contending team matching MLB’s eight longest winning streaks since 1901 1904New York Giants181471.466.41,691 What if we account for rotation size and era?Probability of a generic contender matching the longest winning streaks, adjusted for historical spread of Elo ratings and shorter rotations in past According to this model, the hardest streak still belonged to the 1916 Giants — which isn’t too surprising, since they won four more games in a row than the Indians. And sorry, Billy Beane: the 2002 “Moneyball” A’s also fall behind lesser streaks because of the weak opposition they faced during their streak. But another thing that stands out are the odds, which are much more favorable than if we simply ran them on a .500 team. 1904New York Giants181471.468.9860 (We’ll have to leave the impressiveness of the Dodgers’ feat — winning 52 out of 61 earlier in the season — for another time.)The difference is because a 1560 Elo squad is (by design) no ordinary .500 team. Our generic team is going to be predisposed to running off a stretch of games like this, which only makes sense — average teams don’t go on these kinds of tears. And our simulation teams only got hotter as they won — that is, a team’s rating is fixed at 1560 before the streak begins, but then it gains steam with each victory, making the odds of winning again higher.But there’s another layer we can add to the simulation to make it more reflective of the conditions under which each streak was actually compiled. Most clubs didn’t use the five-man rotation, for instance, until the 1970s or early ‘80s; likewise, the best teams of the past used to be much stronger Elo-wise, making it more likely we’d see such a run of greatness earlier in baseball history. We can account for these wrinkles by assigning a four-man rotation to teams before 1980, and adjusting our generic team’s fixed rating to be slightly higher in the past than in later seasons.5The adjustment, which is based on smoothing out changes in the average World Series team’s pre-playoff Elo over time, isn’t huge for most comparisons, but it does drop our fixed rating from about 1580 in 1903 to about 1540 in 2017. After re-running the numbers with these two tweaks, here’s an amended list of the most difficult streaks: 2002Oakland Athletics201489.563.78,454 2017Cleveland Indians221496.763.029,951 1906Chicago White Sox191507.461.411,642 YEARTEAMSTREAK LENGTHAVG. OPP. ELOAVG. WIN PROB.GENERIC TEAM ODDS 1916New York Giants261493.465.2%1 in 76,702 1916New York Giants261493.567.234,720 1906Chicago White Sox191507.563.95,313 2017Cleveland Indians221496.660.9%1 in 65,566 1953New York Yankees181518.058.616,752 1947New York Yankees191506.260.813,297 1953New York Yankees181518.059.213,895 YEARTEAMSTREAK LENGTHAVG. OPP. ELOAVG. WIN PROB.GENERIC TEAM ODDS (ADJ.) In a plot twist, the Indians’ streak now rises to the top — a function of being accomplished in an era of (theoretically) more parity and a higher chance for some scrub pitcher to mess the streak up thanks to a bigger rotation than older teams had.So how does this stack up against notable streaks from another sport like, say, basketball? Using the same Elo-based method,6Except without any of the fancy starting pitching adjustments, obviously. I calculated the odds of a generic contending NBA team (with a 1660 Elo7The average Elo for an NBA Finalist since 1984, when the league adopted its current playoff format.) pulling off some of the longest streaks in pro basketball history. And even the most impressive streaks on the hardwood can’t compare with baseball’s hottest runs.The longest winning streak in NBA history, the 1972 L.A. Lakers’ 33-game winning streak, would have a 1 in 720 chance of being accomplished by our generic contender. The Golden State Warriors’ 24-game streak to start the season a couple years ago raises the bar a bit, with a 1 in 1,879 chance of being achieved by a generic contender, since the Warriors faced a much more difficult slate of opponents. But even a streak as memorable as the Houston Rockets’ 22-gamer from 2008 seems weak (1 in 247 odds) when compared with the baseball streaks we looked at above.Streaks are nice, but the Indians surely have another accolade in mind: the World Series trophy. As of now, we give them a 1 in 4 chance. Given what they just pulled off, doesn’t seem so hard, does it? 1947New York Yankees191506.261.710,223 2002Oakland Athletics201489.462.213,775 1935Chicago Cubs211499.663.119,477 1935Chicago Cubs211499.764.312,736